A single model may contain a number of linear equations. In such a model, it is often unrealistic to expect that the equation errors would be uncorrelated. A set of equations that has contemporaneous cross-equation error correlation (i.e. the error terms in the regression equations are corrlated) is called a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) system. At first look, the equations seem unrelated, but the equations are related through the correlation in the errors. The systemfit R package allows a user to specify multiple equations and fit them in an SUR. After doing so, one can perform tests on coefficients across the equations.
We will illustrate SUR using the hsb2 dataset, predicting read and math with the overlapping sets of coefficients and then comparing some coefficients across the two equations. We will first define our model equations as R formulas.
library(foreign)
library(systemfit)
hsb2 <- read.dta("http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/notes/hsb2.dta")
r1 <- read~female + as.numeric(ses) + socst
r2 <- math~female + as.numeric(ses) + science
Once the equations have been defined, they can be passed in a list to the systemfit command. A summary of the systemfit first shows a summary of the system (where N = 400), then the separate equations, and then how the residuals of the two equations are related. These are followed by the OLS fits of the separate equations.
fitsur <- systemfit(list(readreg = r1, mathreg = r2), data=hsb2)
summary(fitsur)
systemfit results
method: OLS
N DF SSR detRCov OLS-R2 McElroy-R2
system 400 392 22835.2 3227.86 0.405103 0.342707
N DF SSR MSE RMSE R2 Adj R2
readreg 200 196 12550.9 64.0351 8.0022 0.400037 0.390854
mathreg 200 196 10284.4 52.4712 7.2437 0.411171 0.402158
The covariance matrix of the residuals
readreg mathreg
readreg 64.0351 11.4952
mathreg 11.4952 52.4712
The correlations of the residuals
readreg mathreg
readreg 1.000000 0.198310
mathreg 0.198310 1.000000
OLS estimates for 'readreg' (equation 1)
Model Formula: read ~ female + as.numeric(ses) + socst
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 20.6824980 2.9789550 6.94287 5.5018e-11 ***
femalefemale -1.5111280 1.1510793 -1.31279 0.19079
as.numeric(ses) 1.2183658 0.8399004 1.45061 0.14849
socst 0.5699327 0.0562967 10.12373 < 2.22e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 8.002195 on 196 degrees of freedom
Number of observations: 200 Degrees of Freedom: 196
SSR: 12550.883066 MSE: 64.035118 Root MSE: 8.002195
Multiple R-Squared: 0.400037 Adjusted R-Squared: 0.390854
OLS estimates for 'mathreg' (equation 2)
Model Formula: math ~ female + as.numeric(ses) + science
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 19.305181 2.998047 6.43925 9.0557e-10 ***
femalefemale 1.160903 1.041641 1.11449 0.266432
as.numeric(ses) 1.399639 0.742390 1.88531 0.060867 .
science 0.575330 0.054328 10.58993 < 2.22e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 7.243704 on 196 degrees of freedom
Number of observations: 200 Degrees of Freedom: 196
SSR: 10284.364144 MSE: 52.471246 Root MSE: 7.243704
Multiple R-Squared: 0.411171 Adjusted R-Squared: 0.402158
We may be interested in comparing the effect of female on read, controlling for ses and socst, to the effect of female on math, controlling for ses and science. For this, we will use the linear.hypothesis command from the car package. To do this, we create a "restriction" on the model system. We will force the coefficient of female to be the same in both equations and then compare such a system fit to the one seen when the coefficients are not equal.
library(car) restriction <- "readreg_femalefemale- mathreg_femalefemale" linear.hypothesis(fitsur, restriction, test = "Chisq") Linear hypothesis test (Chi^2 statistic of a Wald test) Hypothesis: readreg_femalefemale - mathreg_femalefemale = 0 Model 1: restricted model Model 2: fitsur Res.Df Df Chisq Pr(>Chisq) 1 393 2 392 1 2.9626 0.08521 . --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
The content of this web site should not be construed as an endorsement of any particular web site, book, or software product by the University of California.